Arsenal FC defender Bacary Sagnaai??i??s contract expires at the end of the season, but given the situation they must do what is required to keep him at the club.
Arsenal are looking to resign Bacary Sagna to a short-term deal. Therefore, not only could Sagna leave because a club offered higher wages, but he could leave for a club offering more years, greater security of future income. This is particularly attractive to an older player who may be signing his last ai???big moneyai??? deal. Therefore, if Arsenal wish to sign Sagna to a relatively short deal (probably the best thing to do with a player the age of Sagna), they will need to make sure they compensate him for the potential loss in future income by turning down a longer deal from another club.
Say a club is offering him four million pounds a year (about A?77k/week) for four years. Say Arsenal are offering a two year deal with the same wages, and that after that contract, he would only be able to make 3 million a season for the next two seasons (about A?58k/week). In terms of wages, signing for Arsenal costs Sagna two million pounds in those two future years (no attempt to find the discounted value will be in this piece since it is difficult to know what Sagnaai??i??s discount rate is).
Unless playing for Arsenal provides Sagna with benefits for him that other clubs cannot offer (staying in London, staying a Gunner, competing for league titles, playing in the UCL, etc.), Arsenal will have to compensate Sagna for this loss financially, if they want him to resign. Given the cost of acquiring an alternative, Arsenal should happily compensate Sagna for that loss.
When it comes to resigning a player, the major costs are wages, agentai??i??s fees, and a signing-on fee. When it comes to acquiring a player from another club, those three costs are present, along with a transfer fee. Therefore, it is often cheaper to resign a player of ai???xai??? caliber, rather than letting him go and replacing him with a player of similar quality. This becomes more of a certainty as contract length decreases, ceteris paribus, because the transfer fee becomes a larger proportion of the total outlay (George Orwell would not have enjoyed that particular use of Latin in an English piece).
Going back to the example presented earlier, Arsenal would need to pay Bacary Sagna an extra two million (a maximum since humans generally discount future income compared to current-period income) over the two years of the deal. They would need to pay a little over A?19k/week more, over the two years, to make the deal comparable with respect to gross wages (net wages ignored in the example, since tax rates vary significantly throughout Europe). Given this, what other courses of action could Arsenal pursue?
Upgrading over Bacary Sagna? Not Likely
Arsenal could justifiably let Sagna go and sign a replacement if the replacement is an upgrade on Sagna. That player would make Arsenal better now and going forward, and thus merits a long-term contract. Someone who can consistently justify their increased marginal cost relative Sagna. However, who at right-back represents an appreciable upgrade over Sagna, in the present, going forward, and is also available? Phillip Lahm is not leaving Bayern Munich (and, for the record, should win/should have won any individual award that is given to Frank Ribery as award for Bayern Munichai??i??s amazing season); Pablo Zabaleta is not leaving Manchester City. After those two, the best of remaining right-backs do not represent significant and guaranteed upgrades over Bacary Sagna now and in the future. The one exception may be Stephan Lichtsteiner, but he seems best suited for a back three (also is too important for Juventus to let go). A right-back, who will significantly improve Arsenal now and going forward, does not appear available to sign. Therefore, Arsenal should not waste their resources trying to find and sign one.
The Argument Against Signing a Right-Back For the Future
Arsenal certainly should not sign a replacement for the Frenchman, who is likely a downgrade from Sagna in the short-term, but has the potential to be better than Sagna is currently, in the long-term. Arsenal are in a place where they will probably remain contenders for the Premier League title, and are progressing toward being in the conversation as Champions League contenders (clubs currently in the conversation: Bayern Munich, (huge drop off)ai??i??Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund (with the league out of reach they can save their intense style of play for the UCL), and Juvenai??i??wait.) Therefore, signing a starting right-back, whose value most comes from what he may become three or four years down the road does not make sense for Arsenal, given their current status and trajectory with respect to England and Europe.
Arsenal Already Have a Future Plan at Right-Back
The other reason signing a player like that makes less sense for Arsenal is that Arsenal have quality right-back prospects; one who is/can (depending on oneai??i??s opinion of him) become a quality squad player, and one who represents the future for Arsenal at right-back.
Carl Jenkinson probably is not good enough to be an Arsenal regular, but he provides value as quality squad player. While all clubs want to produce stars, the best youth scouters and developers allow a club to internally/cheaply produce squad depth. Being able to produce squad depth cheaply allows Arsenal to allocate more resources towards big purchases that will improve the best XI. It also lowers the probability that Arsenal accumulate overpaid squad players that are difficult to move. For clubs without the aid of a billionaireai??i??s checkbook, having flexibility when it comes to their assets is important and crucial if they want to compete for the highest honors.
Jenkinson also seems to bleed Arsenal. For a club that has been burned in the past by players who played for the club, but were more than willing to leave, that loyalty is valuable. The chances of a contract dispute are lower, and there is a greater chance such a player is willing to play for less than his market wage, as no other club offers him the ability to play for the club he loves. Jenkinson may contribute in creating an atmosphere in the squad, where players view playing for Arsenal as a privilege. This could allow for more stability in the squad, and potentially better player performance. Therefore, Jenkinsonai??i??s potential combination of on-field value, off-field value, and cost make him an attractive player for Arsenal to keep as quality squad depth.
Hector BellerAi??n, Arsenalai??i??s 18-year old youth player, currently on loan at Watford FC, represents Arsenalai??i??s future at right-back. Arsenal signed BellerAi??n from La Masia, and his ability on the ball reveals the quality of his upbringing as a Barcelona youth product. His excellent technique allows him to play a short passing game, carry the ball up the pitch, and, unlike many fullbacks his age, he has quality offering for a final ball. His athleticism and endurance allow him to cover large amounts of ground on the right flank, a critical attribute for an Arsenal fullback. He has all the skills one desires in an attacking fullback. However, like any 18-year old footballer, he has plenty of things on which to improve. Most importantly, BellerAi??nai??i??s positioning and defensive concentration need to improve. Fortunately, given his youth, those aspects should improve with experience. If he continues to develop, in three years, BellerAi??n could take his place as Arsenalai??i??s first-choice right-back. This makes a signing Sagna to a two-year deal more attractive as it provides a bridge to and a teacher for BellerAi??n, as well as Jenkinson.
Conclusion
Resigning Bacary Sagna on a two-year deal, even at six-figure wages, is a cheaper and better strategy than signing a replacement. It allows Arsenal to more efficiently allocate their resources. Those saved resources could go towards more pressing areas of the pitch such as finding a center forward, another center back (preferably one who could step in for Per Mertesacker), or a deep-lying midfielder, though that need depends on oneai??i??s belief in Alex Oxlade-Chamberlainai??i??s potential in that role (wrote about this in August when Arteta got hurt). It could go towards youth development, increased scouting (especially important Arsenal increase their English scouting given the advantages given to them by the Elite Player Performance Plan), and/or youth signings. Given the value Sagna provides and at a relatively low cost, Arsenal shouldAi??pay that man his money.
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