Group C hasnai??i??t gone exactly to plan, Spain and Italy were expected to qualify easily. The former will if they can draw against Croatia (although quotes by pretty much every player in Spain says they will go for the win).Ai?? Third placed Italy have to win and itai??i??s that simple. Considering how they performed against the European Champions and Irelandai??i??s capitulation, one would expect Italy to win.
As The Group Stands
Both Croatia and Spain can qualify for the quarter finals if they draw 2-2 or higher. However, all indications point towards Spain going for a win even if that is easier said than done. Bilicai??i??s Croatia have never faced Spain in a competitive match (only in friendlies and their record does not bode well), Modric and company will be looking to beat the European champions while sticking to their style of play. The Italians have no choice but to win and then hope that Spain don’t draw (as mentioned above) while the Irish are definitely out of the tournament but will be looking to play for pride.
V
CROATIA
PGE Arena, Gdansk
June 18, 2012
***
Euro 2012
Coach Slaven Bilic has a team that plays a style of football based on passing with Luka Modric as the metronome. Furthermore, Bilic has very capable forwards in Jelavic and Mandzukic although the Everton striker is rumoured to be a doubt for the match because of fever. The latter has scored 3 goals in this edition of the Euros from 4 attempts which proves that if Modric creates the chances, odds are they will be converted into goals.
That could turn out to be a problem for Spain. Although Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique have done well, the chemistry between the two centre backs is lacking. Individually, Pique has seen a resurgence in form while Ramos displayed a drastic improvement against Ireland. However, Croatia might turn out to be a harsher test for the Spaniards. Spainai??i??s defense should look to perfect their ability to execute the offside trap.
Expect Croatia to use a 4-2-3-1 formation which will allow Modric to be more influential while also increasing fluidity. Assuming Jelavic is fit to play then expect Mandzukic, Modric, Perisic and Jelavic to play upfront.
Spain seem to have no real problems which could mean one of two things – Spainai??i??s defense havenai??i??t really been tested and the partnership of Ramos and Pique could be got at OR they are really as good as theyai??i??ve shown and Croatia could be overrun.
All that aside, Spainai??i??s forwards are at risk of firing blanks. Torres scored twice against Ireland and fans will hope for more but consistency could be a problem for the former Atletico Madrid player. Fabregas, who could hold down a starting spot in almost any other national team in the world finds himself unsure of a position in the starting 11. David Villaai??i??s absence has not really been missed so far but things could change quickly and drastically.
Although Vincente Del Bosque has proven capable of experimenting with his line up and formation, one can expect him to go with a 4-2-3-1 with Torres upfront (and hence avoid further scrutiny from the media).
The usual suspects should start, that is: Xavi, Iniesta and Silva in midfield (while Alonso and Busquets being the 2 defensive midfielders) with Fernando Torres being the focal point upfront. The problem is that Alonso, Arbeloa and Torres are at risk of missing the next game if they get a yellow card. Therefore, there is the possibility that Javi Martinez starts alongside Sergio Busquets.
One has to wonder what it would take for Juan Mata and Fernando Llorente to get a few minutes on the pitch considering they were spectacular for their respective clubs and considering that the regular starters could need some rest as well, Del Bosque might look to give Mata and Llorente a few minutes as well.
Key Players ai??i?? Andres Iniesta (Spain), Luka Modric (Croatia)
Prediction: Spain 3 ai??i?? 2 Croatia
___
v
REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
Municipal Stadium, Poznan
June 18, 2012
***
The general consensus is that Italy lack in only one department, attack. Ironic that itai??i??s been their defense that has been found wanting due to injuries. That said, Italy have been great with 3 at the back thanks in large part to De Rossi showing his prowess in defense. Against Spain a 3-5-2 worked in large part due to Spainai??i??s inability to exploit the wings. However, Barzagli is expected to pass a late fitness test and make the match and Cesare Prandelli will probably look to switch to a 4-1-3-2.
Mario Balottelli was reported to have left training with a knee injury and even if he was fit, Prandelli might just choose to start Antonio Di Natale alongside Cassano. The Italians have no option but to win their match and then hope that Spain donai??i??t draw 2-2 or higher against Croatia. Ireland for their part will be looking to save face and give their fans something to cheer about.
The best aspect of Irelandai??i??s Euro campaign so far has been their fans. They have been loud and supported their team despite the 2 losses. However, against Spain the Irish came apart (as expected) but being thrashed and totally outclassed just might have a silver lining to it. This time around, the Irish will continue to play 4-4-2 but will look to be solid in defense and get back to the basics. The most important thing is that they donai??i??t concede early and with their pride at stake, expect the Irish to hold out for as long as possible.
Shay Given will probably start between the sticks for what looks like his final tournament for Ireland, while Keane should bring experience upfront. Damien Duff will look to earn his 100th cap for his country and will probably start as one of the wingers with McGeady in the opposite flank. The midfield will probably consist of Andrews and Whelan, who will hope to keep a lid on Pirlo.
Prandelli will be hoping the Italian legend is at his best again (like he has been in the previous games) and distribute pin-point passes to the wings. The tactical risk is that if Cesare opts for the 4-1-3-2 over the 3-5-2, Italyai??i??s game might be too narrow and will play into Irelandai??i??s obvious strategy which will be to defend deep and narrow and hoping to hit the Italians on the counter.
Unlike Spain, Italy donai??i??t have Andres Iniesta to penetrate a well organised and defensive minded team. So if the Irish get some of that luck they are famous for while being organised in the back, the possibility of earning a point against the Italians is high.
The lack of a clinical striker is also something the Italians will have to think about. Antonio Di Natale is getting on in the age department but has retained his quality, if Pirlo, Marchisio, Giaccherini and De Rossi can create chances, Di Natale will be the player expected to convert. Clear cut chances,however, will be hard to come by and the Italians will have to mentally prepared to stick to the plan and moreover, be patient.
Some of the stats, however, will force people to consider the Italians to be heavy favourites. They are undefeated in their last 12 competitive matches whereas the Irish have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 matches and only scored once. Safe to say, Given will have to be at his very best to keep the Italians out.
Key Players ai??i?? Andrea Pirlo (Italy), Shay Given (Ireland)
Prediction: Italy 2 ai??i?? 0 Ireland
___
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